Expectations of More Major Deals
In early December 2025, Japan’s Kokuyo Group officially announced plans to become the parent company of Thien Long Group (ticker: TLG), targeting an ownership stake of 65.01%. Under the disclosed structure, Kokuyo will indirectly acquire 46.82% of TLG by purchasing 100% of Thien Long An Thinh Co. (TLAT), followed by a public tender offer for an additional 18.19% of shares, subject to regulatory approval.
According to the proposed timeline, the acquisition of TLAT is expected to be completed by August 2026, while the public tender offer for TLG shares is scheduled for October – November 2026. The total transaction value is estimated at approximately USD 185 million.
Meanwhile, recent senior management changes at several banks, including Sacombank, LPBank, and Ban Viet Bank, have also drawn market attention. Industry observers view these developments as potential signals of forthcoming M&A scenarios, including acquisitions or mergers, in the near future.
Not All Deals Enjoy Smooth Sailing
Despite broadly positive signals, not every sector has been equally conducive to M&A activity. Some industries with long-term potential are facing heightened uncertainty due to policy changes, prompting both buyers and sellers to adopt a more cautious stance. Renewable energy projects struggling in the aftermath of the FIT pricing boom are a notable example.
In a recent communication to investors, BB Power Holdings (BBPH), part of the Bitexco ecosystem, said there are currently around 85 transitional renewable energy projects nationwide. Although a negotiated pricing mechanism was introduced in early 2023, subsequent regulatory adjustments, often unfavorable to investors, have prevented many projects from finalizing power purchase agreement (PPA) pricing with Vietnam Electricity (EVN).
According to BBPH, EVN has unilaterally suspended payments for electricity generated by plants operating under previously signed contracts, causing widespread disruption across the sector. This has affected approximately 172 out of 173 renewable energy companies, including both domestic and foreign investors.
Specifically, BBPH’s solar projects have been paid at the transitional price cap of VND 1,184.9 per kWh, instead of the contracted FIT 2 rate of 7.09 US cents per kWh (equivalent to VND 1,783.2 per kWh), since January 2025. As a result, several foreign investors have introduced additional payment conditions or postponed M&A commitments altogether. BBPH’s Japanese investors are currently awaiting the outcome of electricity price negotiations between the company and EVN for two wind power projects before proceeding with further disbursements.
M&A: A “Key” to Unlocking New Growth Engines
Despite localized bottlenecks, M&A remains an effective tool for companies seeking growth opportunities across various sectors. A notable example is Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company (Vinamilk – ticker: VNM). Following its successful acquisition of Moc Chau Milk, Vinamilk swiftly rolled out a comprehensive restructuring strategy, integrating “Vinamilk technology” through new product development, refreshed brand identity, and a revamped storytelling approach.
According to a Deloitte study, companies that place M&A at the core of their transformation strategies significantly outperform traditional peers, delivering shareholder profit growth of up to 464%, more than double the average of the S&P 1200 index.
An analysis of more than 2,000 large-scale global M&A transactions since 2015 shows that so-called “growth engine builders”, companies that pursue bold acquisitions, selective divestments, and ecosystem partnerships, have led growth rankings, even amid shifting regulations, rising economic nationalism, and rapid technological disruption.
Looking ahead, artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced technologies are expected to become central to M&A strategies. Nearly half of CEOs (47%) surveyed said they prioritize investment in AI, not only to improve operational efficiency but also to fundamentally reshape business models and drive long-term growth.
Southeast Asia: Challenges Alongside Opportunities
Southeast Asia’s M&A market in 2025 continues to be shaped by a mix of persistent structural challenges and emerging opportunities. Wide valuation gaps between buyers and sellers, prolonged exit cycles, and seller reluctance to relinquish control remain significant obstacles, particularly in core sectors such as digital infrastructure and renewable energy. At the same time, regulatory changes and increasingly complex post-merger integration, especially in technology and human capital, have heightened execution risks.
Nevertheless, the region remains highly attractive to investors. High-growth sectors such as technology, telecommunications, healthcare, and renewable energy continue to drive M&A activity. Analysts expect narrowing valuation gaps and improving financial conditions to lay the groundwork for a more active deal environment in 2026.
As supply chains, technology, and consumer expectations evolve rapidly, M&A transactions and strategic partnerships are increasingly seen as essential tools for companies to restructure portfolios, acquire new capabilities, and pursue more sustainable long-term growth models.
Notably, private equity firms are expected to play an increasingly prominent role in 2026. Amid slower growth and higher borrowing costs, funds are recalibrating their strategies, deploying an estimated USD 2.3 trillion in unallocated capital to target underperforming or underexploited assets, potentially reshaping entire industries and investment ecosystems.
